Morning Money — October 12, 2026
Canada’s jobs slide is the big story. The economy lost 68,300 jobs in September after shedding 41,700 in August, while unemployment edged up to 6.5%. Participation fell to 64.8%, its lowest level in 29 years outside the pandemic.
Why it matters: The weak labour market reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates soon, which is some relief for borrowers. But it also points to softer household demand and business confidence. The loonie fell to an 18-month low near US$0.70 on Friday, making imported goods and U.S. travel more expensive.
Holiday trading note: The TSX and Canadian bond market are closed today for Thanksgiving. U.S. stock markets are open, while the U.S. Treasury market is closed for Columbus Day.
Overnight: U.S. stock futures were little changed and Europe’s STOXX 600 gained about 0.6%. Oil remained above US$105 a barrel after attacks on Riyadh’s airport and fresh geopolitical developments kept supply risks in focus. Gold slipped about 0.5%.
Earnings season begins: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report Tuesday. Analysts expect S&P 500 third-quarter earnings to rise roughly 30.6% from a year earlier. Watch bank commentary on loan losses, interest income, trading and deal activity.
Inflation test ahead: Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report is expected to show headline inflation around 3.7% year over year and core inflation near 2.5%. A hotter reading could revive rate-hike fears.
What to watch when Canada reopens Tuesday: the loonie, energy shares and bond yields as markets digest the jobs shock and elevated oil prices.
