Morning Money | Monday, October 5, 2026

THE BIG STORY: THE JOBS REPORT CHANGED THE RATE CONVERSATION
The U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September, well below expectations, while unemployment rose to 4.2% and the previous two months were revised down by 60,000 jobs. Markets now see only about a 20% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, down sharply from last week.

Why it matters to Canadians: a Fed pause would ease some upward pressure on Canadian bond yields, mortgages and the loonie. But slower U.S. hiring is also a warning for Canadian exporters and the broader economy.
Reuters: Canadian markets | Reuters: U.S. jobs report

PREMARKET SNAPSHOT
• TSX futures were flat at 6:26 a.m. ET after the index gained nearly 1% Friday.
• U.S. futures pointed slightly lower as technology stocks cooled from record highs.
• Intel fell more than 4% premarket, while Nvidia added about 0.5%.
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated near 5.28%.
• Brent crude held around US$102 a barrel and gold traded near US$4,150 an ounce.
Reuters: U.S. premarket

CANADIAN ENERGY M&A IS HEATING UP
Cenovus agreed to buy Athabasca Oil in a cash-and-stock deal with an implied enterprise value of C$5.7 billion. The acquisition deepens Cenovus’s position in Alberta’s oil sands and highlights how high crude prices are accelerating consolidation.

Separately, Suncor will sell stakes in Terra Nova, White Rose and West White Rose to Ithaca Energy for C$1.2 billion upfront, plus up to C$350 million tied to oil prices. Ithaca will also assume major future investment and abandonment obligations. Suncor is increasing monthly share buybacks from C$500 million to C$750 million beginning this month.
Reuters: Suncor deal | Cenovus announcement

OVERNIGHT
Asian shares generally rose as investors reacted to the softer U.S. jobs report, although trading was thin because several major markets were closed for holidays. The U.S. dollar eased from recent highs, while oil stayed elevated because of continuing Middle East supply risks.
Reuters: global markets

WHAT TO WATCH
• U.S. services data today will show whether weakness is spreading beyond hiring.
• Federal Reserve minutes arrive Wednesday.
• Canada’s September jobs report is due Friday; economists expect roughly 10,000 new jobs and unemployment near 6.5%.
• The biggest market pressure point remains long-term bond yields: lower yields would help rate-sensitive Canadian sectors, while another spike would renew pressure on mortgages, REITs and utilities.