Morning Money | Tuesday, October 6, 2026
THE BIG STORY: OIL DROPS BACK BELOW US$100
Brent crude fell almost 2% to roughly US$98.35 as Middle East exports recovered and the G7 prepared to release emergency stockpiles. At the same time, long-term bond yields eased from multi-decade highs.
Why it matters to Canadians: cheaper oil can reduce gasoline and inflation pressure, while lower bond yields offer some relief for mortgages, businesses and rate-sensitive stocks. The trade-off is that weaker crude can weigh on the TSX energy sector and the Canadian dollar.
Reuters: oil | Reuters: Canadian markets
PREMARKET SNAPSHOT
• TSX futures rose 0.42% at 6:03 a.m. ET.
• Dow futures gained about 0.55%, S&P 500 futures 0.39% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.61%.
• The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield eased to 5.62%; the 10-year also moved lower from recent highs.
• Nvidia rose 0.9% premarket, while AMD gained 1.9%.
Reuters: U.S. premarket
CANADA’S ECONOMY IS STILL SOFT
Canada’s services sector contracted for a fourth straight month in September. The activity index improved to 48.3 from 46.8, but remained below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction. Tariff uncertainty and the Middle East conflict continued to restrain business activity.
The loonie also touched an 18-month low Monday at C$1.4293 per U.S. dollar before recovering slightly. A weaker currency helps exporters, but makes imported goods and U.S. travel more expensive.
Reuters: services PMI | Reuters: Canadian dollar
AI STOCKS KEEP DRIVING THE MARKET
The Nasdaq closed at another record Monday. Nvidia, now valued near US$5.8 trillion, continued higher, while AMD said it plans to substantially increase chip supply in 2027 to meet AI demand. The rally remains powerful, but increasingly concentrated in a small group of technology companies.
POWER IS BECOMING AN AI BOTTLENECK
Constellation Energy jumped 6.4% premarket after Google signed a 3,590-megawatt power agreement. The deal reinforces a major investment theme: the AI buildout increasingly depends on electricity generation, grid equipment and data-centre infrastructure—not only semiconductors.
WHAT TO WATCH
• Several Federal Reserve officials speak today; markets see a 78% chance rates stay unchanged this month.
• Fed meeting minutes arrive Wednesday.
• Canada’s September jobs report is due Friday and will be the key domestic test for the Bank of Canada.
• Watch whether falling oil and yields can broaden the rally beyond mega-cap technology stocks.
