Morning Money | Wednesday, October 7, 2026

THE BIG STORY: OIL AND BOND YIELDS ARE CLIMBING TOGETHER
Brent crude moved back above US$100, while the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.71%—its highest level since 2002. That combination revived fears that inflation will stay elevated and interest rates will remain higher for longer.

Why it matters to Canadians: rising oil supports Canadian energy producers, but it also lifts gasoline and transportation costs. Higher global bond yields can feed into Canadian fixed-mortgage rates, business borrowing costs and pressure on REITs, utilities and other rate-sensitive stocks.
Reuters: Canadian markets | Reuters: U.S. premarket

PREMARKET SNAPSHOT
• TSX futures fell 0.41% at 5:59 a.m. ET.
• Dow futures were down about 0.6%, S&P 500 futures 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.7%.
• The U.S. 10-year yield climbed near 5.33%.
• Brent crude traded around US$102; gold fell roughly 1% to about US$4,120 an ounce.
• Micron, AMD and Broadcom were among the premarket chip-sector decliners.

TODAY’S MAIN EVENT: FED MINUTES
The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its September meeting this afternoon. Investors want to know how strongly officials support another rate hike after last month’s increase. Markets broadly expect a pause in October, but a December hike remains a serious possibility.

Canadian markets are also pricing in at least one 25-basis-point Bank of Canada increase before year-end. Any hawkish language from the Fed could push both U.S. and Canadian yields higher.

RECORD INDEXES, NARROWER PARTICIPATION
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records Tuesday, powered by AI optimism. But the equal-weighted S&P 500 remains more than 5% below its record, while the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 is more than 8% below its high. The headline indexes look strong, but many ordinary companies are not keeping pace.

EARNINGS CHECK
Constellation Brands fell more than 5% premarket after lowering its annual operating-margin forecast, despite reporting results ahead of the broader earnings season. By contrast, AI-server company Penguin Solutions rose about 5% after strong results and a higher revenue outlook.

Analysts expect third-quarter S&P 500 earnings to rise roughly 30% from a year earlier, led by energy and technology. That is a high bar—and it helps explain why individual stocks may react sharply to any disappointment.

WHAT TO WATCH
• Fed minutes this afternoon.
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury auction, an important test of investor demand for government debt.
• Whether Brent holds above US$100.
• Canada’s September jobs report on Friday—the key domestic signal for the Bank of Canada.