Morning Money — Thursday, October 1, 2026
BIG STORY: Bond yields keep climbing — even after softer inflation
The global bond selloff intensified overnight. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached about 5.32% and the 30-year hit 5.66%, their highest levels since 2002. Canada’s 10-year yield climbed near 3.99%, close to its highest since 2023.
Why it matters to Canadians: long-term yields help set fixed-mortgage and business borrowing costs. If they stay elevated, refinancing gets tougher and high-valuation stocks face pressure — even if central banks pause short-term rate hikes.
Reuters: global bonds
BAY STREET BEFORE THE BELL
• TSX futures were down 0.4% at 6:27 a.m. ET as higher yields outweighed support from commodities.
• The TSX ended its five-month winning streak in September, hurt by volatile oil, rising borrowing costs and Canada–U.S. trade tension.
• Brent crude moved back above US$100 a barrel. That can support Canadian energy producers, but it also adds inflation pressure for households and businesses.
Reuters: TSX futures
MICRON DELIVERS — BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE SKY-HIGH
Micron reported blowout results and issued a stronger-than-expected revenue forecast as AI data centres drive demand for advanced memory chips. It also disclosed roughly US$32 billion in customer supply commitments.
Still, Micron slipped about 1% premarket: a reminder that when a stock has more than tripled, “great” results may already be priced in. Nvidia, AMD and other chip names gained, while Alphabet rose about 2.3% after unveiling its Gemini 4 AI model.
Reuters: U.S. premarket
CANADA’S TRADE PIVOT
Canada’s non-U.S. trade minister, Maninder Sidhu, is meeting India’s commerce minister today at the G20 trade gathering as both countries push for a trade agreement by year-end. With the U.S. dispute deepening, expanding non-U.S. markets is becoming an economic necessity, not simply diversification.
Reuters: G20 trade talks
ON THE CALENDAR
• U.S. manufacturing data at 10:00 a.m. ET will test whether higher rates are slowing activity.
• Several Federal Reserve officials speak today, including Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman.
• Nike reports after the close, offering a read on consumer demand and global retail conditions.
WHAT TO WATCH
The key number today is the U.S. 10-year yield. If it holds above 5.3%, Canadian banks may benefit from wider margins, but REITs, utilities, telecoms and other rate-sensitive stocks could remain under pressure.
