Morning Money — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

BIG STORY: U.S. inflation cooled more than expected
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 0.3% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core PCE was softer at 0.2% monthly and 3.0% annually — below the pre-release forecasts. But real consumer spending still jumped 0.6%.

Why it matters to Canadians: cooler U.S. inflation can take pressure off bond yields and the U.S. dollar, which matters for the loonie, Canadian fixed-mortgage rates and valuations for TSX growth stocks. Strong spending, however, means the Fed is not getting an all-clear yet.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

CANADA CHECK
• Canada’s economy was unchanged in July, matching expectations; Statistics Canada’s early estimate points to 0.2% growth in August.
• That keeps third-quarter growth roughly in line with — or slightly above — the Bank of Canada’s 1.5% annualized forecast.
• The loonie finished Tuesday near a 12-week low at about C$1.4175 per U.S. dollar. Any easing in U.S. rate pressure would be welcome, but trade risks remain a drag.
Reuters

PREMARKET SNAPSHOT
• TSX futures were up 0.1% at 6:33 a.m. ET.
• Before the inflation release, Dow futures were -0.2%, S&P 500 -0.15% and Nasdaq-100 -0.32%. Amazon, Tesla, Apple and several chip names edged lower.
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was near 5.24%, still close to its highest level since 2007.
• Brent crude was up about 0.6% near US$103 a barrel — supportive for Canadian energy stocks, but still an inflation risk.
TSX futures | U.S. markets | Oil

STOCKS & EARNINGS
• Boeing gained about 2.1% premarket after winning a US$20-billion contract to develop the U.S. Navy’s next stealth fighter; rival Northrop Grumman fell 3.5%.
• Robinhood rose 2.2% after announcing weekend round-the-clock trading for selected U.S. stocks.
• Micron reports after the bell. Its outlook is the day’s key test for AI-driven memory demand and the broader semiconductor trade.

CANADIAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM
The Bank of Canada and OSFI said banks should treat use of the central bank’s overnight Standing Liquidity Facility as normal liquidity management — not a distress signal. The BoC is also strengthening Canada’s repo-market infrastructure, important plumbing for government bonds and short-term funding.
Reuters

WHAT TO WATCH
Watch the post-inflation move in the U.S. 10-year yield and the loonie, then Micron after the close. If yields retreat while oil stays firm, Canadian banks, energy and rate-sensitive stocks could react very differently.