Pressure Mounts on Chris Alexander as Critics Warn of Chow Vote Split

Three weeks after former Conservative cabinet minister Chris Alexander entered Toronto's mayoral race, a growing chorus of conservative commentators, political veterans and former politicians is warning that his candidacy could help re-elect Mayor Olivia Chow.

The Bradford campaign has now released a lengthy compilation of comments from political figures and commentators—including former Harper cabinet minister Lisa Raitt, former mayor John Tory, Tim Hudak, Karen Stintz, Ben Mulroney, Jerry Agar and others—questioning Alexander's path to victory and warning about splitting the vote.

The concern has taken on added significance following the latest Liaison Strategies poll.

Among decided and leaning voters:
Olivia Chow — 49% Brad Bradford — 38% Chris Alexander — 11% Other — 3%
That's a notable change from Liaison's August 7 poll, when Chow stood at 47%, Bradford at 40% and Alexander at 10%.

In other words, Alexander isn't currently close to winning—but his support is substantial enough that the vote-splitting question could become one of the defining issues of the campaign.

Former Harper cabinet minister Lisa Raitt, who served alongside Alexander, warned: “We are splitting the centre vote every single time, and we are letting the progressive left [win].”

Former Toronto councillor Karen Stintz questioned why Alexander would want to be viewed as a “ballot spoiler.”

And broadcaster Jerry Agar argued that Alexander could attract enough support from Bradford's side to effectively “guarantee that Olivia Chow will be continuing as mayor.”

Alexander, for his part, is campaigning on improving Toronto's economy, transit, housing and neighbourhoods, arguing that the city has been “standing still” and needs more ambitious leadership.

While one can't say with certainty that all of Alexander's voters would transfer to Bradford were he to drop out, with Chow now holding an 11-point lead and Alexander himself polling at 11%, the debate over whether Alexander is a genuine contender—or a spoiler who could determine the outcome—is only getting louder.