Could Toronto Be About to Break a 28-year Mayoral Streak?

Toronto voters are heading to the polls today, October 26, in a mayoral race that could make city history.

Since Toronto's amalgamation in 1998, no sitting mayor who has sought re-election has ever lost. But Mayor Olivia Chow is facing a challenge from city councillor Brad Bradford in a race that has tightened considerably in recent weeks.

Toronto's mayoral history has certainly had its share of surprises.

In 2010, Rob Ford swept into office on a promise to end wasteful spending at City Hall, defeating former provincial cabinet minister George Smitherman. Four years later, after a scandal-filled term, Ford withdrew from the mayoral race and his brother Doug took his place. John Tory ultimately won that election.

Tory went on to win three consecutive mayoral elections, including a landslide victory in 2022. But just months later, he resigned following revelations of an affair with a former staff member, triggering an unexpected byelection.

That brought Olivia Chow to City Hall in June 2023. She won a crowded race with approximately 37% of the vote, defeating former deputy mayor Ana Bailão by roughly 34,000 votes.

Now, just over three years later, Chow is fighting to keep her seat.

The campaign has focused heavily on affordability, public safety, traffic and property taxes. Chow has defended her administration's record, while Bradford has argued that Toronto needs a change in direction.

And what initially looked like a comfortable lead for Chow has become a competitive race. One poll released last week even placed Bradford slightly ahead, while a survey published early Monday morning showed Chow leading 53% to 43% among decided and leaning voters.

Toronto has seen plenty of changes at City Hall over the years. But those changes have generally come when a mayor retired, stepped aside or resigned, not because voters defeated a sitting mayor seeking another term.

Will that pattern continue?

Polling stations are open until 8 p.m. today, with results expected later tonight.