Morning Money — Monday, September 14

Oil is back at the centre of the market story. Brent crude jumped above US$107 this morning after attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut its key East-West pipeline, adding another supply risk to an already tense Middle East. For Canadians, expensive oil is a mixed bag: it can support energy producers and the TSX, but it also raises gasoline and transportation costs and makes the inflation picture harder for central banks.

Markets are starting the week cautiously. TSX futures were slightly lower, while U.S. futures weakened more sharply — Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 1.5% as major AI stocks came under pressure. Bond yields remain elevated, with the U.S. 10-year near 5%, while gold moved lower. Canada also gets fresh August inflation numbers this morning, with economists expecting headline CPI around 3%.

What to watch: Canada’s inflation report this morning and whether oil holds above US$100. Both could shape expectations for interest rates — and borrowing costs — heading into a busy week for global central banks.