Morning Money | September 16, 2026
The big story this morning is interest rates. Markets are bracing for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates today for the first time since 2023 as inflation, high oil prices and rising bond yields force central banks back onto the defensive. For Canadians, this matters even if the Bank of Canada does nothing: U.S. rates influence bond markets globally, which can feed directly into Canadian fixed mortgage rates, borrowing costs and the loonie. At home, inflation held at 3% in August, while Ottawa is increasingly pushing investment and trade diversification away from the U.S. as the trade dispute drags on.
Markets are a little calmer ahead of the 2 p.m. Fed decision. TSX futures are up roughly 0.15% after the index slipped 0.3% Tuesday, while U.S. futures are also modestly higher. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently crossed 5% — its highest level since 2007 — and remains one of the biggest pressures on stocks. Oil is finally taking a breather after its recent surge, with Brent around US$107, though Middle East supply risks remain elevated.
What to watch: Today’s Fed decision is important, but the bigger market mover may be what Chair Kevin Warsh says about whether this is a one-off hike or the beginning of a new tightening cycle.
