Morning Money | Thursday, September 3
The big picture for Canadians: The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% yesterday, but the conversation is shifting from when rates might fall to whether inflation could eventually force them higher. Oil remains elevated as U.S.–Iran tensions keep supply concerns alive, while Canada’s new counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion of U.S. imports are set to take effect September 8. For households and businesses, that combination matters: higher energy and import costs can keep inflation sticky even as economic growth remains uneven.
This morning: TSX futures are roughly flat, with stronger commodities helping offset caution around higher bond yields. U.S. futures are also subdued ahead of fresh labour and services data. Brent crude is around US$97 a barrel and WTI near US$93. In tech, AI spending remains a major market driver: Broadcom reported another sharp jump in AI-related revenue, while Snowflake surged after stronger results and guidance.
What to watch: Today brings U.S. jobless claims and ISM services data, but Friday’s U.S. jobs report is the bigger test. A weak number could ease pressure on rates; a strong one could reinforce the market’s renewed concern that borrowing costs may stay higher for longer.
