Israel's Election: Tight Polls, Charedi Tensions and a Battle for Every Vote

With less than a week remaining before Israel's October 27 Knesset election, the political landscape remains deeply divided, with neither major bloc assured of the 61 seats needed to form a government.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu faces a significant challenge from former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party leads Likud in several recent polls. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett, running alongside Yair Lapid, represents another major opposition force.

Meanwhile, the Charedi draft controversy has prompted forceful interventions from Gedolei Yisroel and Chassidic Rebbes, while a dramatic effort to persuade former IDF brigadier general Ofer Winter to withdraw from the race has exposed growing tensions within the right-wing camp.

The Latest Polls

An October 21 analysis by The Jerusalem Post, averaging four recent surveys, placed Eisenkot's Yashar party at approximately 22.5 seats, compared with 19.75 for Netanyahu's Likud. Bennett's B'Yachad party averaged approximately 13.5 seats.

Neither Netanyahu's traditional coalition partners nor the Zionist opposition consistently reaches the 61-seat threshold, raising the possibility of difficult coalition negotiations or another political deadlock.

The withdrawal of Benny Gantz's Blue and White party has further reshaped the electoral landscape.

Gedolei Yisroel Issue Strong Election Directives

The unresolved controversy surrounding military conscription for Charedi yeshiva students remains a central election issue.

Shas leader Aryeh Deri has declared that his party will not join or support the next government without legislation regulating the status of yeshiva students.

Netanyahu has expressed opposition to arrests of yeshiva students over conscription, while Eisenkot and Bennett advocate broader military enlistment.

Against this backdrop, HaGaon Rav Dov Landau shlita delivered a forceful address at a United Torah Judaism gathering in Ashdod on October 20, declaring that voting Gimmel represents a continuation of the directives of the Chazon Ish and subsequent Gedolei Yisroel.

He warned against abstaining or supporting newly established Charedi parties without rabbinic approval, emphasizing that working Charedim are also an inseparable part of the Torah community.

HaGaon Rav Moshe Hillel Hirsch shlita similarly warned against supporting alternative parties. At recent gatherings, he described the situation as a sha'as pikuach nefesh, citing threats to Charedi educational institutions, including Chinuch Atzmai, chadarim and Bais Yaakov schools.

The statements come amid dissatisfaction among some Charedi voters over the failure to secure draft legislation.

Chassidic Rebbes Weigh In

Leading Chassidic Rebbes have also issued election directives, although their approaches have differed.

The Gerrer Rebbe instructed his Chassidim to vote Gimmel on October 17, following uncertainty surrounding internal Agudas Yisroel tensions. Notably, his directive omitted the customary call for active campaigning and voter mobilization.

The Belzer Rebbe issued a stronger mobilization directive, instructing his Chassidim not only to vote Gimmel but also to actively work for the party's success.

In another noteworthy development, Rav Shaul Alter, Rosh Yeshivas Pnei Menachem, instructed his followers to support Gimmel and encouraged active participation, despite his community's longstanding split from the main Gerrer Chassidus.

Meanwhile, Belz, Shlomei Emunim and Vizhnitz-Merkaz have established a political alliance within the United Torah Judaism framework, reflecting ongoing tensions over representation and influence.

Netanyahu and Smotrich Pressure Ofer Winter

Another major election controversy involves Ofer Winter, the former IDF brigadier general leading the right-wing Amcha Yisrael party.

Winter's party has been polling near or below Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, raising concerns among Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich that votes for Winter could be lost if his party fails to enter the Knesset.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu and Smotrich reportedly met with Winter's former mentor, Rabbi Eli Sadan, seeking his assistance in persuading Winter to withdraw.

Netanyahu subsequently appealed directly to Winter, warning that his continued candidacy could endanger the right-wing bloc. He also publicized a letter from bereaved military families urging Winter to step aside.

On Wednesday, Smotrich offered Winter a ministerial position in a future government in exchange for withdrawing.

The proposed Defense Ministry position would oversee initiatives involving what Smotrich describes as voluntary Palestinian emigration from Gaza, as well as Charedi military recruitment and workforce integration.

Winter rejected the pressure and insisted that his party would remain in the race.

He also acknowledged that he may have made a mistake by pledging so early in the campaign to support only Netanyahu for prime minister, although he maintained that he remained part of the right-wing camp.

Netanyahu Warns Against Repeating 1992

Netanyahu has repeatedly invoked Israel's 1992 election, when tens of thousands of votes for smaller right-wing parties failed to translate into Knesset seats because those parties did not cross the electoral threshold.

That election ultimately brought Yitzchak Rabin to power, leading to the Oslo Accords.

Netanyahu argues that the right must avoid repeating that electoral mistake.

Similar concerns surround other small parties, including the joint list led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, which has crossed the threshold in some polls but fallen below it in others.

An Uncertain Outcome

As Election Day approaches, Israel faces several overlapping political battles: Netanyahu's contest with Eisenkot and Bennett, the Charedi struggle over draft legislation and voter loyalty, internal tensions within Agudas Yisroel, and the possibility that smaller right-wing parties could alter the coalition arithmetic.

The election's outcome will depend not only on which party wins the most seats, but also on which smaller parties enter the Knesset and whether any leader can assemble a governing majority.

With October 27 approaching, Israel's next government remains far from certain.