Morning Money | September 9, 2026

The big story this morning is a double dose of inflation risk: oil has pushed back above US$100 as the U.S.–Iran conflict escalates, while the Canada–U.S. trade fight is getting more serious. Canada’s new counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion of U.S. goods took effect yesterday, and Washington has now announced additional restrictions on several Canadian products. For Canadians, that combination matters because higher energy costs and tariffs can both feed into prices — making the path to lower interest rates more difficult even if economic growth slows.

Markets are cautious rather than panicked. U.S. futures are slightly lower, Brent crude is around US$100 and WTI is near US$95, while rising Treasury yields are adding pressure to rate-sensitive stocks. Energy remains the obvious area to watch in Canada, where higher crude can support producers and the TSX even as it raises costs elsewhere in the economy.

What to watch: oil is the key number today. If Brent holds above US$100, inflation and interest-rate expectations could become an even bigger driver of markets heading into Friday’s U.S. inflation report.