Morning Money — Tuesday, September 22
Oil finally breaks below $100.
The biggest shift this morning is energy. Brent crude has fallen to roughly US$98 a barrel — a two-week low — as Iran signals it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia restarts its East-West pipeline. For Canadians, cheaper oil is a mixed bag: it can weigh on energy stocks and the TSX, but it also takes some pressure off gasoline prices, inflation and ultimately interest rates.
That matters because the Bank of Canada is caught between two risks. Governor Tiff Macklem warned yesterday that renewed U.S. tariffs could push Canadian growth below 1% in the fourth quarter, while high energy prices have been pushing inflation the other way. The Bank is still holding its policy rate at 2.25%.
Markets this morning: TSX futures are slightly higher, despite weaker commodities. Yesterday the TSX gained 0.6%, powered by technology and financials — Shopify jumped nearly 8%. In the U.S., the Nasdaq surged 2.3% to a record close as AI enthusiasm returned; AMD gained 10% and reached a US$1-trillion market value. Gold is down modestly around US$4,328 as investors increasingly expect another Fed rate hike this year.
What to watch: U.S.–Iran diplomacy is now a major market variable. If Hormuz reopens and oil keeps falling, inflation fears could cool quickly. In Canada, retail-sales data later this week will give the next read on how consumers are holding up.
