Morning Money | Tuesday, September 1
What matters this morning: September is starting with interest rates and oil back at the centre of the market story. Renewed U.S.–Iran fighting has pushed crude sharply higher, reviving inflation concerns just as investors were hoping borrowing costs could stabilize. That matters in Canada because higher oil can support the energy-heavy TSX and Canadian producers, but it can also keep gasoline prices and inflation elevated — making life harder for households and complicating the Bank of Canada’s rate outlook. The Bank is expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday as it weighs inflation against the economic uncertainty created by the Canada–U.S. trade fight.
This morning: TSX futures were down about 0.5% before the open as rising global bond yields and weaker precious metals outweighed support from oil. Brent crude was around $92 a barrel, up roughly 2%, while gold fell more than 1%. U.S. futures were also lower, with technology and chip stocks under pressure as bond yields climbed. The move is a reminder that higher rates can quickly become a headwind for expensive growth stocks even when the underlying AI story remains strong.
What to watch: Wednesday’s Bank of Canada decision is the big Canadian event. In the U.S., labour-market data throughout the week — culminating in Friday’s jobs report — could determine whether the recent jump in expectations for another Fed rate hike has further to run.
