Morning Money — Thursday, September 10
Oil is back above US$100, and that is quickly becoming the biggest issue for markets. Brent crude was around US$102 this morning as escalating U.S.–Iran attacks and continued disruption around key Middle East shipping routes raised fears about global supply. For Canadians, expensive oil can support energy producers and the TSX, but it also risks pushing gasoline and inflation higher — making it harder for central banks to bring interest rates down. At the same time, the Canada–U.S. trade fight remains an economic headwind, with Canada’s new counter-tariffs now in effect and additional trade restrictions adding uncertainty for businesses.
Markets are cautious rather than panicked. TSX futures were roughly flat near a six-week low this morning, while U.S. futures edged higher. Bond yields remain elevated, with the U.S. 10-year near multi-year highs, and gold was around US$4,405. The Canadian dollar has also been under pressure despite stronger crude, as trade tensions weigh on sentiment.
What to watch: U.S. producer-price inflation is due this morning, followed by the more important CPI report Friday. With oil above US$100, any upside inflation surprise could quickly move bond yields, rate expectations and stocks.
